Rise in Holiday Food Prices Slows

Shoppers should see slower food-price inflation this year than last when buying their Christmas meals, a new survey concludes. According to a data analysis and forecast prepared by Category Partners, the price of purchasing Christmas dinner at a supermarket will be approximately 7 percent higher than in 2022. The forecast was derived using supermarket sales data provided by NielsenIQ collected from more than 35,000 food stores in the United States.

The data analysis shows that a basic Christmas dinner in 2023 purchased from a supermarket for a family of four will cost approximately $50.56, compared to $47.25 in 2022. However, even with slower price inflation, prices remain 18.5 percent higher than at Christmas 2021.

“Slowing food price inflation across the supermarket is good news for consumers,” said Tom Barnes, CEO of Category Partners. “The data confirms that while prices remain elevated the alarming food price inflation we saw two years ago has moderated.”

Barnes noted price increases vary significantly by supermarket department. Seafood (-1.7 percent), produce (+2.2 percent) and meat (+2.4 percent) have had negative or slower than average price inflation over the past year while grocery prices (+10.5 percent) and bakery (+9.5 percent) show higher-than-average price inflation.

“Consumers should be pleasantly surprised this season when shopping for their holiday meals in most of the fresh departments at their local supermarkets,” he said. “Inflation is a constant concern as consumers try to make ends meet. The slower than average inflation in the produce, meat and seafood departments means consumers could be a little more merry this season.”

Click here for more from the survey.