Imports at major U.S. container ports are expected to remain below last year’s levels for the first half of 2026 amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, and it’s still too soon to gauge the impact of the conflict in Iran on such shipments and the overall economy, concludes the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
“The immediate impact on containerized traffic to the United States is not likely to be substantial since little U.S.-bound container cargo is sourced from the [Gulf] region,” said Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett. “While it is too early to measure in the monthly data, increasing oil and gasoline prices will inevitably drive structural inflation if the conflict persists. That, in turn, could squeeze consumer discretionary spending and U.S. manufacturing, and ultimately drive down import volumes in the longer term.”
As for the tariff situation, the report takes note of the Supreme Court ruling last month against the administration’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, as well as President Donald Trump immediately responded by announcing a temporary, 150-day 10% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, a figure the administration almost immediately said could be increased to 15%. (The administration is also looking at launching a series of new Section 301 trade investigations.)
“The Supreme Court has struck down IEEPA tariffs but other tariffs have already been announced and others will be coming, so uncertainty continues for retailers,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “The need for clear and predictable trade policy remains, and long-term planning continues to be difficult for merchants and other businesses.
“While we agree with holding our trading partners accountable and looking for more domestic manufacturing opportunities, it needs to be understood that tariffs drive up costs for businesses and prices for consumers. They should be used in a strategic manner. In addition to tariffs, we are closely watching the situation in Iran and the potential impact it will have on retail supply chains.”