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US Labor Market Keeps Growing

Economist: Remarkably resilient job market points to shallow recession later this year.

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The U.S. generated 390,000 new, non-farm jobs in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. What does that mean for the economy as it moves past the mid-year mark?

Below are excerpts from The Conference Board Senior Economist Selcuk Eren’s thoughts about that question:

“The latest jobs report showed the U.S. labor market remains remarkably resilient … . This follows an upward revision of April’s data to 294,000 total jobs added — another sign of the labor market’s ongoing strength.

“Job gains in May were economy-wide, with almost every industry adding jobs—including construction, government, health care and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and transportation and warehousing. [Editor’s note: Retail employment remained essentially unchanged for the month, the labor bureau reports.]

“… We maintain the expectation of a short and shallow recession taking hold later in 2023 as the Federal Reserve continues to implement its policy of raising interest rates to curtail inflationary pressures. Consequently, we anticipate a rise in the unemployment rate to approximately 4 percent by the end of the year and for it to reach 4.4 percent by the second quarter of 2024.”

Click here for Eren’s full commentary.

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